Predicting the Future

We all want to know the future -- either with the expectation of making a fortune or so that we can prepare for what is coming.  It is the unknown that causes doubt and fear.

Some people have a knack for guessing trends and utilize that talent for great financial gain in business or in the stock market.  It is usually the result of study and understanding of the signs which surround us -- either in human behavior or natural events such as drought.  They see what is happening and accurately predict the implications for the future.

The seeds of the future are all around us.  Guessing which ones will sprout and which ones will wither and die is the key.  I wish I were better at it.

This is the time of year when many plants are producing the seeds for future crops.  Below is a photo of seeds on the Bald Cypress (Taxodium distichum) which grows on our place.  It is a monoecious plant which means both male and female reproductive organs reside on the same plant.  The single tree we have makes me want to predict that there will not be any little Bald Cypress coming up in the future despite all the seeds it currently bears.  I haven't seen any little ones running around anyway.

 Forecast

The other day I posted about using native plants in our flower beds around the house.  Texas Sage was the one in the photograph that accompanied the post.  It is known as the Barometer Plant and in South Texas it is known for predicting rain with its blooms.  Well, ours is blooming like crazy even though it has only been planted a short while (photo at bottom of post).

We certainly need the rain, but not as desperately as most of the rest of the state and the Southwestern U.S. in general.  Drought conditions continue and rainfall deficits have left many lakes far below their desired levels.  This condition doesn't bode well for the cities and small communities that depend on those lakes for water.

It also continues to pressure the cattle industry.  High beef prices in the grocery store are directly related to declining numbers of cattle and a growing population that demands high quality protein.  We will not see significant rebuilding of the national cow herd when severe drought limits the availability of suitable forage for grazing.

I am concerned that many people both within and outside the cattle industry will seek to blame the problem on something other than the weather.  Generally, it is the beef packers who are saddled with fault when it comes to beef prices.  It is simple economics surrounding supply and demand with production constraints affecting both sides of the equation.  Most don't see it that way and will call for government intervention.  Such intervention will be directed at the packers because they are everyone's favored whipping boy.  It should instead be directed at urban sprawl which is removing suitable grazing land at a pace faster than drought.  The politics don't work so instead of fixing the problem, government intervention will likely only make it worse.

Oil prices are another issue which is constraining not only to cattle production but to almost every industry.  The blame will fall squarely on the current administration and their actions in Iran which have temporarily caused supply disruptions.  This is one where political pressure again will dictate how and when we withdraw from that action rather than suffering the short-term pain in order to receive the long-term gain of curbing the radicalized regime which has long declared "Death to America."

There are many other issues that we currently face, and everyone has their opinion on how they will turn out.  We all have a "forecast" for the future, and it is based on our personal experience, education, and otherwise gained knowledge.  It's too bad that none of it is as reliable as our little Texas Sage, the Barometer Plant.

We had to cage the sage in order to protect it from rabbits as well as a dog that thinks the flower bed is his napping ground.  Pardon the rusty T-post -- I believe in endless recycling.

The Cycle of Change

I've heard it said that the way we start a new year sets the pattern for the coming year.  If that's the case, it will be one of getting up early!

There's a certain symmetry to writing 2020.  I realize after looking at the image above that I might should have spent a little more time and "drawn" it rather than writing.  It is a little sloppy.  I'm sure someone who is versed in analyzing handwriting will have something to say about the way I failed to close my O's.

I'm sure that many of you have resolutions for the coming year.  If you are so inclined, please comment with some of them -- they must be suitable for all audiences.  If you are not so disposed, that's okay as well.  My list is short this year; write more.  Yes, as I write this I am acknowledging that I need to write more -- no, not necessarily longer posts on this blog, but serious writing.

I wonder what this new decade will bring?  The History Channel says: "In the Roaring Twenties, a surging economy created an era of mass consumerism, as Jazz-Age flappers flouted Prohibition laws and the Harlem Renaissance redefined arts and culture."  Will the 2020's be a repeat?  After all, we are seeing a strong economy and "mass consumerism" is definitely the norm.

If you look back to the 1820's there were some interesting things happening.  Maine and Missouri became states, President Monroe announced the Monroe Doctrine, Moses Austin and his son Stephen F. Austin were establishing a settlement at San Felipe in the Mexican state of Texas, Napoleon died on the island of St. Helena, aluminum was discovered and the Rosetta Stone was translated.  Oh, and the Democratic Party was created.  That one is particularly interesting since they broke off from the Democratic-Republican Party over Andrew Jackson who was much like our current President in that he was supported by the rural parts of the country and known for his stubbornness which gave rise to the donkey as the symbol of the Democratic party.  My how history runs in cycles.  I expect a new party to break off from the Democratic party in the 2020's; it will be the Democratic Socialists.  It will occur after backlash over the rising socialist tendencies creates a split within the party.  It might happen as early as the next election cycle.

Also, in 1826, the first photographs were taken and in 1829, a patent for the "first typewriter" was filed.  There is some question as to it actually being the first, but it is the first that was well documented.  Both of those inventions contributed to this morning's post.  It is amazing to me that both have been replaced by the hand-held computers we carry around with us everywhere we go which are known as cell phones.  I suspect that name will soon be replaced by something more encompassing of their functionality.

What will the decade of the 2020's bring?  Any predictions out there?  Will we return to the moon?  Make it to Mars?  Will we see the 30's bring another depression such as followed the 1920's?  Perhaps the 2030's will be more like the 1830's and Texas will secede -- this time from the U.S. rather than from Mexico.

Enough of the prognostication.  Maybe I should add a resolution to focus more on the present?  I like science fiction too much for that.  I also like history.  Maybe if we balance the two....

Eyes Ahead

Sometimes we get a glimpse

Of what lies just ahead

And we get all excited

Or, our hearts are filled with dread.

The tantalizing vision

Which lies just beyond our reach

Has lessons of its own

That it will surely teach

But, for now it is the journey

That leads us ever on

Until we step into that place

Where we have never gone

And witness with our very eyes

Those things which lay before

As we travel through this crazy life

To some far distant shore.

Yoda, Priorities and Pathways

I realize that it is Fall and the weather is changing quickly, but this springtime image is one of my favorites.  It carries a lot of meaning for us because this is a picture of the site where we thought of building a house.  We no longer own these cows or, the land.  Things change and we decided our best option was to sell them.

It is interesting how things change through the years.  Many of the hopes and dreams of our youth fade into the reality of our present.  We move forward in the belief that the path we are on is the correct one that will lead us to our dreams.  I believe that if we are in tune with God's Will for our life, that is true, but I also believe that if we are within His Will, he sometimes changes our dreams to match the path He has put us on.

Letting go of one dream and grasping another sometimes takes time and the transition isn't always a smooth one.  I know many people at this stage in life who have "settled for" their current situation.  I hope I never "settle for" but, keep on reaching, striving, doing, working to make a positive difference.  What we do with our lives really does matter even though we often think it doesn't.  The impact of a word or, deed on the life of someone else can reverberate down through generations to make either a positive or, negative impact in the lives of many.  We need to be certain that each and every one is positive or helpful.

The most important things in life have nothing to do with what we accumulate or, the trips we take; they are the things that impact eternity.  Everything in this life should be focused on our relationship with God, not on the things of "self."  By "the things of self" I am referring to those rewards we think we deserve -- trips to foreign lands, big houses, fancy cars, a life of ease.  All of those things are focused on "self."  Instead, the important things are those focused on others.  The Bible is clear that we should first focus on our relationship to God and second, on our relationship to others. 

"Love the Lord your God with all your heart and with all your soul and with all your mind and with all your strength.  The second is this: Love your neighbor as yourself." -- Mark 12:30-31

We aren't yet certain what the next chapter will bring, but I am looking forward to it.  In the words of Yoda, "Difficult to see.  Always in motion is the future."  (from "The Empire Strikes Back")

Ultimately, there is only one thing that is important for determining the next step in life's journey.  I woke this morning with these words ringing in my head:

"Jesus answered, 'I am the way and the truth and the life.  No one comes to the Father except through me.'" -- John 14:6

Legacy

The things we allow to take root in our lives

Shape the landscape of our future.

Plant wisely.

Weed carefully.

Cultivate that which will bring

Peace and contentment

In your waning years

And in the lives of those

Who are our legacy.

Resolving Images

I looked

And the image was true.

Shaken,

The ripples blurred

That which had been clear

Into something

Obscure.

My sense

Of purpose which drove me

Dissolved.

The world changed

Into one that lacked direction.

I hesitated,

Confused.

In faith

I stepped into the future

Boldly.

With decision, pathways

Resumed their focus around me

And peace

Returned.

Scouting the Horizon

Frequently on social media you see games that entice with phrases like, "What Old West character would you be if you had been alive in the 1870's?" or something similar.  I say "entice" because they are primarily a way for someone to gain access to your profile and your contacts.  They are bait.

Although I don't click on them, they do sometimes cause me to speculate.  The question above is one that has intrigued me throughout my life.  I have always been a "fan" of the old west and have many books related to the history of that time during the westward movement of "civilization" across our country.  We will set aside the debate about "stealing" the land from the natives, etc. for another time.

My answer to the question is that I think I would have been a Scout/Tracker.  Scouts were employed by wagon trains, the cavalry and law enforcement.  Their job was to stay ahead, searching out the trail, water holes, food and danger.  They tended to be loners and they were often familiar with the country and the natives because it wasn't their first time to cross the area.  They were usually good at reading "sign" and able to tell a good deal about potential danger from tracks and other evidence left behind.  I suspect they spent a lot of time thinking.

The reason I believe that role fits is because that's where I like to be -- out ahead, looking for the path, watching for danger and for opportunity.  It is part of what drives me to spend time each morning thinking about the day and the future.  I examine the current situation and then think about the various paths forward and often speculate on what might happen depending on different scenarios that could develop.  It isn't "daydreaming" about things, it is deliberately thinking through potential consequences of present actions.  It is a  form of flexible planning.

That mindset is part of the reason I like to write.  I suspect you will see signs of that speculation in the things I record here on this blog as well as elsewhere, such as the column I write for CALF News.  I like to think about the future.  That's where opportunity resides and being among the first to spot opportunity gives one an advantage.  If our focus is merely on the present, or even worse, strictly on the past, we miss much of what life has to offer.

Well, enough of that for this morning.  I need to head on out and see what's over the horizon.  Y'all drink your coffee....

Shifting Horizons

Ever evolving
We change with the tides
That move us
inexorably
Onward
To a destination
Only dimly seen
On the horizon.
Yet as we gaze
Ahead into the unknown
The shifting mists
Obscure the vision
Until that which we thought
Would be is now
No longer there.
It has been replaced
By something
Unimagined
And yet unfulfilled
But drawing
Us into itself.