Exploding Populations and Food Production

I generally take information coming out of the United Nations with a great deal of skepticism simply because there is so much of it that is politicized, but their projections for world population growth, whether high, low or dead-on, should be taken seriously.  Barring some major worldwide disaster of unprecedented proportions, the population on the planet will grow.

Feeding that population will create challenges.

In today's world there are strange forces at work when it comes to food production.  1)  You have animal rights activists who believe we should completely eliminate animal proteins of any kind from our diet.  2)  There are environmental pressures -- some believe all agriculture is bad for the environment.  3)  There are trendy movements toward "organic" or "all natural" that affect productivity.  4)  There is the "eat local" movement.  5)  There is the "fresh" movement that would eliminate preservatives.  6)  There are various diets that eliminate certain food groups.  7)  There is competition for the resources to grow it -- land and water.

I'm sure I've missed a few of the anti-food-as-we-know-it pressures, but you get the picture.

My point is that in spite of the need to feed a rapidly growing population, there are pressures that negatively impact agriculture.  Add to that the normal periodic effects of massive weather events such as flooding in the U.S. this year which has delayed corn planting, or the droughts and fires followed by flooding which have hit Australia recently and the ability to feed the planet's population becomes increasingly questionable.

What is the solution?  New technologies that help us to do more with less -- just as U.S. agriculture has done for years -- in new and creative ways.

We need meat protein production for several reasons.  Animals are efficient converters of plants, that are unusable by humans, into excellent foods is the primary one.  Livestock, especially cattle, are also an effective way to manage some environments such as prairies and deserts -- if properly handled.

Vegetables are a different issue.  Locally grown has tremendous merit due to spoilage in transportation.  Transportation is also another problem -- the largest contributor of greenhouse gasses into the atmosphere is transportation.  Growing vegetables locally would eliminate some of that.  They also lend themselves to industrial-type greenhouse conditions which are effective ways to grow them with a low spacial footprint which helps to solve issues of seasonality.

One of the greater concerns that I have is that of food waste.  In the U.S. it is a real problem.  Previous generations had lower food waste because they utilized the "scraps" and leftovers by feeding them to swine or their dogs -- which by-the-way had "jobs" such as "burglar alarm" and guardian of the domestic stock against predators.  How much potential human food is made into pet food?

Probably the biggest issue that will impact our ability to produce the necessary food to feed the burgeoning world population is water.  Competition between industry, cities and agriculture for this single limited resource will become fierce.  Efficiently utilizing it to meet the various competing needs is a problem we need to accept and begin now to implement plans that will meet the future needs.  With an expected increase of the world population of about 60% over today's numbers to a projected 11.2 billion people by 2050, we need to face the reality that water is going to be a growing issue.  That's only about 30 years away -- the blink of an eye when you really think about it.

Big Cities and People, People, People

Imagine for a moment any of the large cities of the world.  The skyscrapers reach to the sky in the city center, or if it is like Dallas, or Houston, in multiple centers of commerce scattered over miles and miles of the terrain.  Around these islands of high-rise buildings there are usually areas of slightly shorter and older buildings that still tower high above the streets and then further out you begin to encounter apartments and condominiums and eventually other urban and suburban residential areas interspersed with shopping and other types of businesses.  Often, there are also areas of distribution or, manufacturing located on the outskirts of these sprawling achievements of man.

Now, think about the number of people concentrated in those areas.  Think of the thousands upon thousands of individuals who daily make the commute from the residential areas to the centers of business.  Think of their families -- spouses and children -- who spend each day in their own job or, in school.  Think of the transportation infrastructure and the utilities such as electricity and water and garbage and sewage disposal.  Imagine for a moment how many gallons of fuel are required for a single day of commerce to occur in that one large city.

Now, multiply that by several hundred, or thousand to account for other cities of similar composition scattered across the globe.  As of this moment, the global population is estimated at 7.6 Billion people.

The average global consumption of food on a daily basis is 1,878 grams that's approximately 4.14 lbs. per person per day.  If you multiply that by the number of people on this planet it comes to 31.464 Billion lbs. of food per day or, 15.732 Million U.S. tons.  That's a lot of food.

When you look at solid waste per person, it is estimated by the World Bank to be .74 Kilograms, or 740 grams per person per day.  That equates to 1.63 lbs. per person daily, or 12.388 Billion lbs. of solid waste daily for the total global population.  It all goes somewhere.

When you start to really look at the numbers it is easy to see why some people have entered "panic mode" about the number of people on this planet and the impact they are having on it.  For those of us who live in rural areas it is less apparent.  I frankly don't see how we are able to feed all of those people that are currently on the planet, let alone the additional ones who will be added in coming years.  The transportation demands alone to get the food from where it is produced to where it is needed is mind-boggling.

Just my thoughts this morning....