Rumblings of Peace

The sky is rumbling this morning.  It is the rumbling that accompanies a gentle rain.  It is peaceful, unlike the violent crashing of a thunderstorm.

The announcement was made last night that the terms of a general peace agreement with Iran have been reached.  An official memorandum is to be signed on Friday in Geneva which will begin a 60-day period in which the details of a comprehensive agreement are to be worked out.

I am skeptical that it will hold.

As with all such agreements there is discontent by many.  In time discontent begins to fester into resentment and finally to action.  Shared common interests are the only way to real peace.  All parties must have the same goals in mind along with an agreed approach to how they are to be achieved.

At the end of the day, it is self-interest that drives behavior.  I don't believe we are at a point where there is common self-interest.

Is true and lasting peace achievable?  Again, I am skeptical.  There is insufficient commonality of beliefs for that to occur.  There is an unwillingness to share power and control.

Perhaps economic incentives can be structured in such a way that peace will be maintained for a period, but in the end, core beliefs will continue to be a well of discontentment.  Pockets of fervent believers who think they have "been wronged" will stir trouble until we again find ourselves in crisis.

This week's Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) is a small beginning.  There will be fortunes made from the impact it has on the markets.  Other fortunes will be made when the agreement is broken.

The small Plant Hopper pictured below is only about 1/4 inch in length.  This one is identified as Ormenoides venusta.  It is not known to be an economically damaging species and is often found feeding on wild grapevines.  Not a lot is known about it, but it obviously fills a niche in the environment that is important or it wouldn't exist.  It is a tiny thing but I'm skeptical about the "not known to be economically damaging" aspect of its description.